Kerala CPM likely to grin and bear it

25 May 2009, ET Bureau


THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Going from a position of 18 Lok Sabha seats out of 20, to a mere four can be a body blow for any coalition and trigger a move to fix responsibility, but the CPM in Kerala, which now has four seats and none for any of its coalition partners, is likely to just grin and bear it.

Observers here say that any major change in the party set-up is unlikely and that a status quo would continue irrespective of the drubbing that the party took in the Lok Sabha polls.

What was widely speculated in the backdrop of the appalling defeat at the polls was a likely change of the chief minister or at least some cosmetic changes to the ministry, but neither of that is likely to happen, they say. Nor is the party state secretary's post in any danger.

It is felt that despite the enormity of the loss, chief minister V S Achuthanandan continues to have considerable charisma among the people making it a tricky decision to change him after three years in office. The CPM does not have a legacy of changing the chief minister mid-course, either.

Observers say that the face-off between the official faction backing party state secretary Pinarayi Vijayan and the opposite camp attached to the chief minister would continue, with neither side being able to get a clear upper hand. While the Pinarayi camp is considered to have a brutal majority within the party framework, the party state secretary happens to be embroiled in the SNC Lavalin case, which weakens his otherwise strong hold on the party.

However, the CPM move to merely discuss the poll debacle without taking anyone to task may not go well with its coalition partners. The RSP and the CPI, for instance are unhappy about the Left front losing the Kollam seat where the CPM contested. Coalition members are also unhappy about the CPM and the CPI publicly haggling over the Ponnani candidate, and the CPM's move to take on board the People's Democratic Party led by Abdul Nasser Madani. The latter move is considered to have alienated a large section of minorities.